The Next Wave of Growth in Greenville

For the first time in South Carolina history, a metro area has crossed one million people, and it's Greenville, after 15% growth over the last 10 years. That growth doesn't spread out evenly; it follows the highways and new jobs, and buyers are landing in suburbs and lake towns like Travelers Rest, Simpsonville, Fountain Inn, and Lake Keowee while a 29-story tower goes up downtown and the arena heads into a $282 million makeover. The market has shifted too: there's around four months of supply in the Greenville area, the average sales price over the last 90 days is $618,000 in the city of Greenville versus $461,000 in the county, and homes are averaging 84 days on market in the city and 76 in the county. If you're buying, use the leverage you have now instead of waiting on the perfect market, and if you're selling, price it right and prep it right from day one.

Here's the whole breakdown, from the numbers behind the population boom to the playbook for buyers and sellers right now:

Not Charleston. Not Columbia. Greenville.

For the first time ever in this state, a metro area passed 1 million residents, and it happened right here. That didn't come out of nowhere. It's 15% growth over the last 10 years, in a state that grew faster than any other in the country this past year.

My team and I help well over 150 families move to, move out of, or move across our area every year, so we get a front-row seat to what's pulling them here. And nobody moves here for one reason. They move here for a whole stack of them:

• Taxes. South Carolina doesn't tax your Social Security, and there's a tax break on retirement money on top of that. Property taxes, if you live in the home you own, are tied for some of the lowest in the country.
• Weather. It's mild with four real seasons, because Greenville sits 1,000 feet above sea level and the Blue Ridge foothills are just north of us.

Take somebody who bought here five years ago. They watched their equity climb, year after year. They watched new restaurants, new trails, and new employers pop up a few miles from the house they were living in. They didn't do a thing to earn it except live in it. That's why our clients tell us the same thing over and over: they wish they'd done it sooner.

No. Growth doesn't spread out evenly. It follows the highways. It follows new jobs.

Buyers who land near a growth zone tend to build the most equity over time, while buyers who pick some random neighborhood 40 minutes from everything just don't.

And I'll be honest with you about the other side of this. That many people don't move in without a cost. Traffic on I-85 and I-385 has gotten worse at rush hour, and it isn't getting fixed next year. Some of our roads are playing catch-up and losing. Anybody telling you Greenville has no downside is selling you something.

It's not where most people guess. Here's how the towns stack up.

What's the tradeoff in Travelers Rest?

Saturday morning in Travelers Rest looks like a movie set. Bikes stacked up outside the coffee shop, dogs on every patio, families walking in off the trail for brunch.

That town has grown 20% since 2020, and it's turned into one of the priciest small towns in the Upstate. A big reason why is the Swamp Rabbit Trail, a paved path that runs along the Reedy River from downtown Greenville all the way up to TR. Folks want to walk places without paying downtown Greenville prices.

If you want a slower pace and coffee you can walk to, TR delivers. But if you want a Costco run and a Target run in the same trip, that drive is going to wear on you. That is the tradeoff.

I'll say this candidly, too. Travelers Rest is a very small town, and our clients are surprised by that every time. Some fall in love with it, and some tour it once and cross it off the list. You need to stand in it before you buy in it.

Most home prices there run in the $500s into the $700s, and anything with land or a mountain view climbs from there.

What does Simpsonville offer?

Simpsonville is the other side of that coin, and it might be the most well-rounded suburb we've got. It sits along I-385, on the stretch folks here call the Golden Strip, and that's been our fastest-growing piece of the county for years.

Downtown Simpsonville has woken up with new shops and restaurants, and all available commercial space in downtown Simpsonville is now leased.

Your sweet spot there, price-wise, is the $400s into the $600s, and there are more homes at that price than almost anywhere else around Greenville.

What does lakefront cost at Lake Keowee?

Lake Keowee is a whole different animal. Retirees and luxury buyers keep chasing that waterfront, and good lakefront around here starts over $1.5M and goes up from there.

If Keowee is on your list, reach out, because we've got agents who do that side of the business all day long.

Why are buyers looking at Fountain Inn?

Fountain Inn is the quiet one, for folks who want to be close without the buzz. It's one of the fastest-growing towns in the county, sitting just south of Simpsonville, with a reinvigorated downtown and starter prices that pull in first-time buyers and seasoned buyers alike.

Your dollar stretches about as far there as anywhere in the path of growth.

Builders have noticed all of it, and that's the part that matters for you.

New homes are going up in these towns faster and in larger amounts than they're going up downtown, because there's land out there, and not as much downtown. You're seeing the fringes of downtown start to be developed, which isn't appealing to a lot of downtown buyers. If you want to live in downtown Greenville, you want to live in downtown Greenville, not on the edge of it where you can't walk into the city core.

So if you want new construction with a warranty and a floor plan you picked yourself, you'll find it in Simpsonville, in Fountain Inn, in Greer, and out toward Duncan in between Greenville and Spartanburg.

Trust me on this one. The suburb you pick is going to shape your day-to-day more than the house you pick. We watch folks get that right, and we help prevent folks from getting it wrong all the time.

If you're wondering how you'd even start sorting through all these towns from a few states away, my team and I do that with folks every week.

All that growth changed the market you're about to buy or sell in, and it flipped on us this year.

There are more homes for sale now than we've seen in years. What we're tracking sits at around four months of supply in the Greenville area, and that's a real shift from where we were a couple of years back.

Buyers can breathe again. They can walk a house twice before they write an offer. They'll ask for repairs without getting laughed out of the room.

There's something you've got to understand before you compare a single listing down the street from you.

The city of Greenville runs higher than the county does, obviously. The average sales price for a home in the city of Greenville over the last 90 days is $618,000, while the county's average sale price over the last 90 days is $461,000. It's nearly 50% more expensive to buy in the city of Greenville vs. Greenville County, and people who want to live the downtown Greenville lifestyle are willing to pay for it. And for good reason. It's an amazing place.

That gap trips folks up all the time. Somebody reads a headline about Greenville, then pulls up a house in Simpsonville, and the math doesn't add up. Those are two different markets with the same name on them.

Sellers, you're not going to love all of this.

Homes are sitting longer. In the city, it's stretched to an average of 84 days on market, while out in the county the average days on market is 76. A couple of years ago, those numbers were way shorter.

So if you're selling, pricing high and waiting on a bidding war is over. Gone. You can't list big, sit three weeks, and expect somebody to bail you out.

What we're seeing is simple. Homes priced right and prepped right are still going under contract. Homes priced on hope sit there, go stale, and take a cut anyway. That seller just burned two months and some leverage to get to the same place as the others.

And a stale listing costs you more than the cut does. Buyers see how long it's been sitting and figure something's wrong with the house. Then they come in lower than they would have on day one.

This happened with one of my clients several months ago. My clients toured a home that was obviously overpriced in an incredible community, and they wrote an offer on what they thought was fair. Then on a Sunday, I looked, and the home was under contract for less than what they had offered months before. Don't be that seller.

We've had this talk with sellers a bunch this year. The ones who listen to the numbers beat the ones who don't.

How can buyers use the leverage they have?

First, use the leverage you've already got. Ask for the terms you think are fair, see where the seller is when they counter, and make it a win-win for both parties.

Where does your money go furthest around Greenville?

If you're hunting for value, look at Spartanburg. Prices there land in the mid $200s, well under the city of Greenville, and you're still close to a lot. Spartanburg has almost everything Greenville does with a few exceptions, and it's a city on the rise in my opinion.

If you're shopping that $400,000 to $600,000 range, Greer and Simpsonville are where your money works hardest.

Why shouldn't you think of Greenville as one market?

This might be the biggest thing I can tell you: quit thinking about this as one Greenville market.

The Upstate is a bunch of little markets stacked next to each other. A condo downtown, a resale in Greer, and a two-year-old home in Simpsonville are three separate worlds. They don't rise together, and they don't fall together.

Big headlines about the metro will steer you wrong. Street-by-street numbers won't. That's what we do every day.

Should you wait for rates to drop before you buy?

This is the one move I'd talk you out of.

Folks are holding out for the perfect market. Better rates. Lower prices. More choices. All at once. But that's not a plan, and all of those are things that are out of my control and your control.

Competition here comes back fast. The second rates drop, everybody who's been waiting jumps in. You go from asking for repairs to fighting other offers overnight. We've watched it happen more than once when rates drop: mortgage applications increase, and showings on the same listings do the same. You've got more pull today than you'll have the week after rates fall.

So my advice to you as a buyer is to get real about what you can comfortably afford, search for a home you can live in for at least 7 years barring any significant life change, and if rates come down in the near future, refinance if it makes sense. In any market, with any market conditions, there are properties that would fit your needs. You hire us to help you make the best decision for you and yours.

I'll be blunt with you. Some agents will sit in your living room and hand you a number they know you'll never get, so they can win the listing. Then they spend the next 60 days walking you back down to the number they should have said on day one.

Don't hire that person. Hire the one who tells you what your house is worth given the market conditions of the moment, even when you don't want to hear it.

You want to present your property as the best value around you. That doesn't always mean the lowest price. It's a combination of location, price, features and benefits, and condition. Don't leave it up to chance. Trust in data, someone who is an expert in this market, and someone who will tell you the truth.

You can watch this next wave happen from a couch three states away, or you can be here for it. That's the whole call, and it's yours to make.

If you are thinking about making a move to our area, we would love to be the team that you choose to work with. Email us at [email protected], or call or text at (864) 688-9738, and let's get you home here in Greenville.

As always, I'm Will Sawyer, your friend in real estate. Until next time, stay safe.